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Transmission Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

51 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2020

See all articles by Tao Liu

Tao Liu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Jianxiong Hu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Min Kang

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Lifeng Lin

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Haojie Zhong

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Jianpeng Xiao

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Guanhao He

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Tie Song

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Qiong Huang

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Zuhua Rong

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Aiping Deng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Weilin Zeng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Xiaohua Tan

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Siqing Zeng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Zhihua Zhu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Jiansen Li

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Donghua Wan

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Jing Lu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Huihong Deng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Jianfeng He

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Wenjun Ma

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

More...

Abstract

Background: Since December 29, 2019, pneumonia infection with 2019-nCoV has rapidly spread out from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China to most others provinces and other counties. However, the transmission dynamics of 2019-nCoV remain unclear.

Methods: Data of confirmed 2019-nCoV cases before January 23, 2020 were collected from medical records, epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Guangdong Province during 2002-2003 were obtained from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (GDCDC). Exponential Growth (EG) and maximum likelihood estimation (ML) were applied to estimate the reproductive number (R) of 2019-nCoV and SARS.

Findings: As of January 23, 2020, a total of 830 confirmed 2019-nCoV cases were identified across China, and 9 cases were reported overseas. The average incubation duration of 2019-nCoV infection was 4·8±2·6 days. The average period from onset of symptoms to isolation of 2019-nCoV and SARS cases were 2·9±3·0 and 4·2±3·7 days, respectively. The R values of 2019-nCoV were 2·90 (95%CI: 2·32-3·63) and 2·92 (95%CI: 2·28-3·67) estimated using EG and ML respectively, while the corresponding R values of SARS-CoV were 1·77 (95%CI: 1·37-2·27) and 1·85 (95%CI: 1·32-2·49). We observe a decreasing trend of the period from onset to isolation and R values of both 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV.

Interpretation: The 2019-nCoV may have a higher pandemic risk than SARS broken out in 2003. The implemented public-health efforts have significantly decreased the pandemic risk of 2019-nCoV. However, more rigorous control and prevention strategies and measures to contain its further spread.

Funding Statement: National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606200, 2018YFA0606202), the Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province (2018B020207006, 2019B020208005, 2019B111103001), Guangzhou Science and technology Plan Project (201804010383).

Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Ethics Approval Statement: Data collection and analysis were determined by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China to be part of a continuing public health outbreak investigation, and were thus considered exempt from institutional review board approval.

Keywords: Transmission dynamics, Reproductive number, 2019-nCoV

Suggested Citation

Liu, Tao and Hu, Jianxiong and Kang, Min and Lin, Lifeng and Zhong, Haojie and Xiao, Jianpeng and He, Guanhao and Song, Tie and Huang, Qiong and Rong, Zuhua and Deng, Aiping and Zeng, Weilin and Tan, Xiaohua and Zeng, Siqing and Zhu, Zhihua and Li, Jiansen and Wan, Donghua and Lu, Jing and Deng, Huihong and He, Jianfeng and Ma, Wenjun, Transmission Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) (1/25/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3526307 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3526307

Tao Liu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Jianxiong Hu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Min Kang

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Lifeng Lin

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Haojie Zhong

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Jianpeng Xiao

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Guanhao He

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Tie Song

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Qiong Huang

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Zuhua Rong

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Aiping Deng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Weilin Zeng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Xiaohua Tan

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Siqing Zeng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Zhihua Zhu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Jiansen Li

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Donghua Wan

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Jing Lu

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

China

Huihong Deng

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Guangdong
China

Jianfeng He

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention ( email )

Guangdong
China

Wenjun Ma (Contact Author)

Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention - Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health ( email )

China

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