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East African Community Water Vision. Regional Scenarios for Human - Natural Water System Transformations

40 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2020 Sneak Peek Status: Under Review

See all articles by Sylvia Tramberend

Sylvia Tramberend

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Robert Burtscher

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Peter Burek

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Taher Kahil

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Günther Fischer

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Junko Mochizuki

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Richard Kimwaga

University of Dar es Salaam

Philip Nyenje

Makerere University

Risper Ondiek

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna

Prossie Nakawuka

Makerere University

Canute Hyandye

Institute of Rural Development Planning (IRDP), Dodoma

Claver Sibomana

University of Burundi

Hilda Pius Luoga

Lake Victoria Basin Commission

Ali Said Matano

Lake Victoria Basin Commission

Simon Langan

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Yoshihide Wada

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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Abstract

The development of and access to freshwater resources is fundamental if East Africa aims to achieve its goal of increased economic growth. Following vision documents for regional development and working together with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modelling analysis for the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Results indicate a 4-5 fold increase in water demand, especially for expanding irrigation and domestic water needs. Together with climate and land use change, the discharge and flow regime of the Nile will remain relatively stable. However, if this is to be achieved, while sufficient water is preserved for environmental needs, a large fraction of future water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly, technological, and management options. The interconnected analysis, between up-stream and down-stream water resources and sectoral water demand, guided by co-developed scenarios, supports planning of sustainable water pathways.

Keywords: Water scenarios, Co-development, East Africa, Lake Victoria Basin, Water competition

Suggested Citation

Tramberend, Sylvia and Burtscher, Robert and Burek, Peter and Kahil, Taher and Fischer, Günther and Mochizuki, Junko and Kimwaga, Richard and Nyenje, Philip and Ondiek, Risper and Nakawuka, Prossie and Hyandye, Canute and Sibomana, Claver and Luoga, Hilda Pius and Matano, Ali Said and Langan, Simon and Wada, Yoshihide, East African Community Water Vision. Regional Scenarios for Human - Natural Water System Transformations. ONE-EARTH-D-20-00017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3526896 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3526896
This is a paper under consideration at Cell Press and has not been peer-reviewed.

Sylvia Tramberend (Contact Author)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria
+43 2236 807 401 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iiasa.ac.at

Robert Burtscher

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Peter Burek

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Taher Kahil

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Günther Fischer

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Junko Mochizuki

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Richard Kimwaga

University of Dar es Salaam ( email )

Dar es Salaam
Tanzania

Philip Nyenje

Makerere University ( email )

P.O Box 7062
Kampala, 256
Uganda

Risper Ondiek

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna ( email )

Feistmantelstrasse 4
Wien, 8010
Austria

Prossie Nakawuka

Makerere University ( email )

P.O Box 7062
Kampala, 256
Uganda

Canute Hyandye

Institute of Rural Development Planning (IRDP), Dodoma ( email )

P.O. Box 138
Dodoma
Tanzania

Claver Sibomana

University of Burundi ( email )

Burundi

Hilda Pius Luoga

Lake Victoria Basin Commission ( email )

Kenya

Ali Said Matano

Lake Victoria Basin Commission ( email )

Kenya

Simon Langan

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Yoshihide Wada

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

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