East African Community Water Vision. Regional Scenarios for Human - Natural Water System Transformations
40 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2020 Sneak Peek Status: Under ReviewMore...
The development of and access to freshwater resources is fundamental if East Africa aims to achieve its goal of increased economic growth. Following vision documents for regional development and working together with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modelling analysis for the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Results indicate a 4-5 fold increase in water demand, especially for expanding irrigation and domestic water needs. Together with climate and land use change, the discharge and flow regime of the Nile will remain relatively stable. However, if this is to be achieved, while sufficient water is preserved for environmental needs, a large fraction of future water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly, technological, and management options. The interconnected analysis, between up-stream and down-stream water resources and sectoral water demand, guided by co-developed scenarios, supports planning of sustainable water pathways.
Keywords: Water scenarios, Co-development, East Africa, Lake Victoria Basin, Water competition
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