From SARS-CoV to Wuhan 2019-nCoV Outbreak: Similarity of Early Epidemic and Prediction of Future Trends

Abstract

The ongoing large-scale pneumonia outbreak in China is caused by the 2019-nCoV. As many aspects of the new virus are similar to SARS in 2003, knowledge and lessons of the SARS-CoV outbreak are valuable for responding to the 2019-nCoV outbreak. Using epidemiological surveys and analyses from the early stage of the SARS outbreak, we assessed and compared the characteristics of those two outbreaks. Like the SARS-CoV, the 2019-nCoV has a high human-to-human transmission capability and healthcare workers and family members are high risk populations. Using the reported case data so far, the cumulative counts of 2019-nCoV cases was estimated about 2-3 times the total number of SARS, and the peak incidence is predicted to be in early or middle February. Regional migration should be limited or prohibited to prevent emergence and movement of a super-spreader. Nationwide surveillance and efficient measures are needed to control this epidemic.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV, Outbreak, Viral Super-Spreader