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From SARS-CoV to Wuhan 2019-nCoV Outbreak: Similarity of Early Epidemic and Prediction of Future Trends

40 Pages Posted: 31 Jan 2020 Sneak Peek Status: Review Complete

See all articles by Zeliang Chen

Zeliang Chen

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health

Wenjun Zhang

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Life Sciences

Yi Lu

Boston University - Department of Health Law, Policy and Management

Cheng Guo

Columbia University - Center for Infection and Immunity

Zhongmin Guo

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - Animal Experiment Center

Conghui Liao

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health

Xi Zhang

Shenyang Agricultural University - Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China

Yi Zhang

Shenyang Agricultural University - Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China

Xiaohu Han

Shenyang Agricultural University - Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China

Qianlin Li

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health

Jiahai Lu

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health

More...

Abstract

The ongoing large-scale pneumonia outbreak in China is caused by the 2019-nCoV. As many aspects of the new virus are similar to SARS in 2003, knowledge and lessons of the SARS-CoV outbreak are valuable for responding to the 2019-nCoV outbreak. Using epidemiological surveys and analyses from the early stage of the SARS outbreak, we assessed and compared the characteristics of those two outbreaks. Like the SARS-CoV, the 2019-nCoV has a high human-to-human transmission capability and healthcare workers and family members are high risk populations. Using the reported case data so far, the cumulative counts of 2019-nCoV cases was estimated about 2-3 times the total number of SARS, and the peak incidence is predicted to be in early or middle February. Regional migration should be limited or prohibited to prevent emergence and movement of a super-spreader. Nationwide surveillance and efficient measures are needed to control this epidemic.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV, Outbreak, Viral Super-Spreader

Suggested Citation

Chen, Zeliang and Zhang, Wenjun and Lu, Yi and Guo, Cheng and Guo, Zhongmin and Liao, Conghui and Zhang, Xi and Zhang, Yi and Han, Xiaohu and Li, Qianlin and Lu, Jiahai, From SARS-CoV to Wuhan 2019-nCoV Outbreak: Similarity of Early Epidemic and Prediction of Future Trends. CELL-HOST-MICROBE-D-20-00063. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3528722 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3528722
This is a paper under consideration at Cell Press and has not been peer-reviewed.

Zeliang Chen

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health

China

Wenjun Zhang

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Life Sciences

Xingangxi Road 135
Guangzhou, 510275
China

Yi Lu

Boston University - Department of Health Law, Policy and Management

United States

Cheng Guo

Columbia University - Center for Infection and Immunity

United States

Zhongmin Guo

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - Animal Experiment Center

China

Conghui Liao

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health

China

Xi Zhang

Shenyang Agricultural University - Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China

China

Yi Zhang

Shenyang Agricultural University - Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China

China

Xiaohu Han

Shenyang Agricultural University - Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China

China

Qianlin Li

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health

China

Jiahai Lu (Contact Author)

Sun Yat-Sen University (SYSU) - School of Public Health ( email )

China

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