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The Epidemic Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in China by 28 January

11 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2020

See all articles by Yuan Gao

Yuan Gao

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control

Qiyong Liu

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control

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Abstract

Objective: To explore the epidemic dynamics of the pneumonia caused by 2019-nCoV in China.

Methods: A descriptive analysis was utilized to explore the epidemiological characteristics. A spatial mapping description was conducted to explore the geographic characteristics.

Findings: China has reported 5981 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV infections, including 132 fatal cases until 28 January. The fatality rate was 2.21%. And there were still 9239 probable cases. From 23 January, the growth rate has been increased with a peak on 27 January. Of the neighboring provinces of Hubei, Chongqing reported the most cases until 24 January. Henan reported the most cases from 25 January to 27 January. Hunan reported the most cases on 28 January. Of the other provinces, Guangdong and Zhejiang had more confirmed cases with a higher growth rate.

Interpretation: The epidemic is in the stage of mass morbidity and rigorous screening for probable cases. Although the number of the cases have still increased in China, a series of prevention and control measures have been taken throughout China.

Funding Statement: This study was supported by the Opening Research Grant of the State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Declaration of Interests: The authors state that there is no competing interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.

Keywords: novel coronavirus; 2019-nCoV; China; epidemic

Suggested Citation

Gao, Yuan and Liu, Qiyong, The Epidemic Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infections in China by 28 January (1/29/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3529448 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3529448

Yuan Gao

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control

155 Changbai Road
Changping District
Beijing, 102206
China

Qiyong Liu (Contact Author)

Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis Treatment of Infectious Diseases - State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control ( email )

155 Changbai Road
Changping District
Beijing, 102206
China

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