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Estimating the Number of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Chinese Mainland

15 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2020

See all articles by Huwen Wang

Huwen Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Zezhou Wang

Fudan University - Department of Oncology

Yinqiao Dong

China Medical University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health

Ruijie Chang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Chen Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Xiaoyue Yu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Shuxian Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Lhakpa Tsamlag

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Meili Shang

Sanlin Community Health Service Center

Jinyan Huang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics

Ying Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Gang Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Tian Shen

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Xinxin Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology

Yong Cai

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

More...

Abstract

Background: An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to 2019 novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) happened in Wuhan, Hubei province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, 2 studies estimated the possible epidemic trend of the infection, but proved to be inconsistent with the actual confirmed number of cases. We intend to re-estimate the trend and peak arrival time for the 2019-nCoV infection transmission in Chinese mainland using the SEIR model, so as to provide theoretical basis for future prevention and control of the current epidemic in China.

Methods: An infectious disease dynamics SEIR model was applied to forecast the epidemic’s development trend in China from 26 January 2020 based on data collected from the database reported by the National Health Commission. R0 were assumed to be 0.5, 0.25 and 0.125.

Findings: The estimated numbers of cumulative cases would reach the peak on 3rd, 4th and 5th of February, 2020, which were 11,116, 11,373, 11,966, respectively, in Chinese Mainland. Similar peaks were also identified in Hubei Province, Wuhan City and other locations of China outside Hubei Province. The epidemic of 2019 novel Coronavirus was estimated to subside between early May (R0 = 0.125) and early August (R0 = 0.5). The estimated average number of deaths ranged from 344 to 1146.

Interpretation: 2019-nCoV may be a virus of a high infectivity. The all-out efforts from Chinese government to prevent and control the infection are effective so far, but rigorous measures should be maintained to prevent further spread of the virus.

Funding Statement: This work is funded by the National Key Research and Development Project (2018YFC1705100, 2018YFC1705103) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71673187).

Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; SEIR model; Estimate; Chinese Mainland

Suggested Citation

Wang, Huwen and Wang, Zezhou and Dong, Yinqiao and Chang, Ruijie and Xu, Chen and Yu, Xiaoyue and Zhang, Shuxian and Tsamlag, Lhakpa and Shang, Meili and Huang, Jinyan and Wang, Ying and Xu, Gang and Shen, Tian and Zhang, Xinxin and Cai, Yong, Estimating the Number of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Cases in Chinese Mainland (1/29/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3529449 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3529449

Huwen Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Zezhou Wang

Fudan University - Department of Oncology

China

Yinqiao Dong

China Medical University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health

Shenyang
China

Ruijie Chang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Chen Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Xiaoyue Yu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Shuxian Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Lhakpa Tsamlag

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Meili Shang

Sanlin Community Health Service Center

China

Jinyan Huang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics ( email )

Shanghai
China

Ying Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Gang Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Tian Shen

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Xinxin Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology ( email )

Ruijin Er Road 197
Shanghai, 200025
China

Yong Cai (Contact Author)

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health ( email )

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

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