Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy

26 Pages Posted: 3 Feb 2020

See all articles by Stefano DellaVigna

Stefano DellaVigna

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Nicholas Otis

University of California, Berkeley

Eva Vivalt

Australian National University (ANU) - Research School of Economics

Date Written: January 2020

Abstract

Forecasts of experimental results can clarify the interpretation of research results, mitigate publication bias, and improve experimental designs. We collect forecasts of the results of three Registered Reports preliminarily accepted to the Journal of Development Economics, randomly varying four features: (1) small versus large reference values; (2) whether predictions are in raw units or standard deviations; (3) text-entry versus slider responses; and (4) small versus large slider bounds. Forecasts are generally robust to elicitation features, though wider slider bounds are associated with higher forecasts throughout the forecast distribution. We make preliminary recommendations on how many forecasts should be gathered.

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Suggested Citation

DellaVigna, Stefano and Otis, Nicholas and Vivalt, Eva, Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy (January 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w26716, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3530687

Stefano DellaVigna (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

Economics Department
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
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Nicholas Otis

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

Eva Vivalt

Australian National University (ANU) - Research School of Economics ( email )

Canberra
Australia

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