Understanding Unreported Cases in the 2019-Ncov Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions (中国武汉新冠疫情中未报告有症状病例的数量及公共卫生防控措施重要性的研究)

12 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2020

See all articles by Zhihua Liu

Zhihua Liu

Beijing Normal University (BNU) - School of Mathematical Sciences

Pierre Magal

Institut de Mathematique de Bordeaux

Ousmane Seydi

Ecole Polytechnique de Thies - Departement Tronc Commun

Glenn Webb

Vanderbilt University - Department of Mathematics

Date Written: February 3, 2020

Abstract

English Abstract: We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the 2019-nCov epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to January 31, 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying level of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling 2019-nCov epidemics.

Funding: Research was partially supported by NSFC and CNRS (Grant Nos. 11871007 and 11811530272) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. Research was partially supported by CNRS and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.11811530272).

Declaration of Interest: None.

Mandarin Abstract: 我们建立了数学模型来预测中国武汉的新冠疫情发展趋势。首先使用中国疾病预防控制中心和武汉市卫生健康委员会截至2020年1月31日报告的累计确诊病例数据对模型的参数和初始条件进行估计。然后我们使用该模型给出了未报告的有症状病例的数量,并且在不同级别公共卫生防控措施下来预测疫情走势。该模型预测强调了严格的公共卫生防控措施对控制新冠疫情的重要性。

Keywords: corona virus, reported and unreported cases, isolation, quarantine, public closings, epidemic mathematical model

JEL Classification: C02

Suggested Citation

Liu, Zhihua and Magal, Pierre and Seydi, Ousmane and Webb, Glenn, Understanding Unreported Cases in the 2019-Ncov Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions (中国武汉新冠疫情中未报告有症状病例的数量及公共卫生防控措施重要性的研究) (February 3, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3530969 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3530969

Zhihua Liu

Beijing Normal University (BNU) - School of Mathematical Sciences ( email )

No. 19, XinJieKouWai St
Beijing, 100875
China

Pierre Magal (Contact Author)

Institut de Mathematique de Bordeaux ( email )

Université de Bordeaux
351 cours de la libération
Talence, 33400
France

Ousmane Seydi

Ecole Polytechnique de Thies - Departement Tronc Commun ( email )

Senegal

Glenn Webb

Vanderbilt University - Department of Mathematics ( email )

Nashville, TN 37240
United States

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