Epidemic Prediction of 2019-nCoV in Hubei Province and Comparison with SARS in Guangdong Province
16 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2020
Date Written: February 4, 2020
Since the first case of new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia appeared in Wuhan, the virus has spread very rapidly in China on December 31st, with Hubei Province having the most severe epidemic situation. As of 24:00 on February 2nd, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Hubei Province has reached up to 11,177. In this paper, we select the epidemic situation in Hubei Province as the research object to establish the SEIQDR model of infectious diseases. The parameters are determined from the existing data to predict the trend of the cumulative number of confirmed diagnoses, and the parameters are adjusted according to the prevention and control measures as well as possible changes. In comparison with Guangdong Province, where the SARS epidemic originated, it was concluded that the new coronavirus epidemic far exceeds the SARS epidemic in terms of infection rate and deaths. But thanks to the timely and effective prevention and control measures taken by the country, currently the epidemic is under control, and we predict the end of the epidemic is about 60 days earlier than the SARS virus. The total number of confirmed diagnoses in Hubei Province is 26,701 (ranges from 24,355 to 32,406), and the rapid growth period is expected to be from January 27th to February 10, and the epidemic will grow slowly after February 22nd. The growth is expected to stop on March 30th (ranges from March 26th to April 19th).
Declaration of Interest: A Chinese version of the Journal of the University of Science and Technology of China is currently under review. There are no other competing interests to declare.
Keywords: Prediction of 2019-nCoV transmission; SEIQR Epidemic model; Monte Carlo simulation; Basic regeneration number R0; Comparison with SARS
JEL Classification: C02
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation