Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis

31 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2020

See all articles by Simone Bertoli

Simone Bertoli

Université d'Auvergne - Clermont 1 - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Developpement International (CERDI)

Frédéric Docquier

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)

Hillel Rapoport

Paris School of Economics (PSE)

Ilse Ruyssen

Ghent University - Department of General Economics

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climatic conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents.

Keywords: international migration, migration intentions, individual-level data, weather shocks, Western Africa

JEL Classification: F220, J610, O130, O150

Suggested Citation

Bertoli, Simone and Docquier, Frédéric and Rapoport, Hillel and Ruyssen, Ilse, Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8064. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3531430

Simone Bertoli (Contact Author)

Université d'Auvergne - Clermont 1 - Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Developpement International (CERDI) ( email )

65 Boulevard Francois Mitterrand
63000 Clermont-Ferrand Cedex 1
France

Frédéric Docquier

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) ( email )

11, Porte des Sciences
Campus Belval – Maison des Sciences Humaines
Esch-sur-Alzette, L-4366
Luxembourg

Hillel Rapoport

Paris School of Economics (PSE) ( email )

48 Boulevard Jourdan
Paris, 75014 75014
France

Ilse Ruyssen

Ghent University - Department of General Economics ( email )

Hoveniersberg 24
Ghent, 9000
Belgium

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