The Future of Great Power Intervention: New Alternatives to Military Intervention
36 Pages Posted: 12 Feb 2020
Date Written: February 6, 2020
Abstract
When civil wars rage or genocides break out, decision-makers in the great powers have a range of options at their disposal, from full military interventions to diplomatic protests. This paper makes three arguments about how such decisions are made. First, the decisions by leaders of whether and how to intervene are rational decisions that factor in costs, benefits, and the likelihood of success. Second, when policymakers consider military intervention, they also consider non-kinetic interventions as alternatives to military intervention. Finally, emerging technologies have enabled new, lower cost alternatives to military intervention: influence campaigns and cyber strikes. Because of their lower costs, we should expect decision-makers to choose these alternatives.
Keywords: military, power, intervention, war, policy, technology
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