The Economic Impact of Massive Infectious and Contagious Diseases: The Case of Wuhan Coronavirus

18 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2020

See all articles by Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala; Center of Latin American Studies (CLAS) - University of Malaya; University of Malaya (UM) - Social Security Research Centre (SSRC)

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research

Evangelos Koutronas

West Virginia University - Department of Mathematics

Alam Khan

KUST

Muhammad Tahir

Comsats Institute of Information Technology

Date Written: January 29, 2020

Abstract

We evaluate the economic impact of the Wuhan coronavirus, a massive infectious and contagious disease, on China’s economic performance. To do so, we develop a new model, namely the Integral Massive Infections and Contagious Diseases Economic Simulator (IMICDE-Simulator) and apply it to the coronavirus outbreak. Our analysis based on the simulator indicates that the final impact will be substantial. The results indicate that the growth of the Chinese economy will decline from 6.2% in 2019 to 4.3% in 2020. Hence, the Chinese economy can lose easily a margin between 1.9% to 2% of its growth. The negative effect is significantly larger than that of SARS, and thus also likely to have larger spill-overs on other economies.

Keywords: Economic Simulation, Contagious diseases, China, Wuhan, Policy Modeling

JEL Classification: I15, I18

Suggested Citation

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo and Park, Donghyun and Koutronas, Evangelos and Khan, Alam and Tahir, Muhammad, The Economic Impact of Massive Infectious and Contagious Diseases: The Case of Wuhan Coronavirus (January 29, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3533771 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3527330

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (Contact Author)

Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala ( email )

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Guatemala, Guatemala city
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HOME PAGE: http://www.usac.edu.gt

Center of Latin American Studies (CLAS) - University of Malaya ( email )

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Malaysia
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HOME PAGE: http://ssrc.um.edu.my/

University of Malaya (UM) - Social Security Research Centre (SSRC) ( email )

Malaysia

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Evangelos Koutronas

West Virginia University - Department of Mathematics ( email )

PO Box 6201
Morgantown, WV 26506
United States

Alam Khan

KUST ( email )

Department of Economics Kohat University of Scienc
Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 26000
Pakistan

Muhammad Tahir

Comsats Institute of Information Technology ( email )

University Road, Tobe Camp Abbottabad
Abbottabad, KPK 22060
Pakistan
+923450257036 (Phone)
3450257036 (Fax)

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