The Relevance of ‘Other Surprises’ in Explaining Earnings Announcement Returns

42 Pages Posted: 4 Mar 2020

See all articles by Pawel Bilinski

Pawel Bilinski

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 17, 2018

Abstract

Previous research documents two puzzling results that cast doubt on the usefulness of accounting information to investors: the declining power of street EPS in explaining earnings announcement returns and increasing price reactions to earnings announcements. I show this evidence is due to omitting non-street EPS surprises from the earnings announcement analysis. When I control for ‘other surprises’ based on seven I/B/E/S most frequent forecasts: sales, gross margin, EBITDA, operating and net income, GAAP earnings and cash flows, the adjusted R2 increases over fourfold and street EPS lose explanatory power. The ‘other surprises’ are useful on their own and help interpret street EPS surprises, particularly small street EPS surprises, and earnings news of high accrual and growth stocks, and of high institutional ownership firms. Overall, the study identifies an important set of previously omitted variables that investors use in assessing earnings announcement day information.

Keywords: earnings announcements, unexpected news, street EPS surprises

JEL Classification: G12, G17

Suggested Citation

Bilinski, Pawel, The Relevance of ‘Other Surprises’ in Explaining Earnings Announcement Returns (April 17, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3533931 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3533931

Pawel Bilinski (Contact Author)

City University London - Sir John Cass Business School ( email )

106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
20
Abstract Views
251
PlumX Metrics