Shocks, Development Policies, and Rural-Urban Migration in Vietnam

38 Pages Posted: 7 Mar 2020

See all articles by Manh Hung Do

Manh Hung Do

Leibniz Universität Hannover - Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics

Trung Thanh Nguyen

Leibniz Universität Hannover

Thanh-Tung Nguyen

Leibniz Universität Hannover - Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade

Ulrike Grote

Leibniz Universität Hannover - Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade

Date Written: February 7, 2020

Abstract

Behaviors of migrants towards shocks are worthy to study to understand their reflection on external unexpected events to narrow the gap in the literature of migrations. Besides, rural development policies are believed to help reverse the rural-urban migration. This research paper was aimed at taking these critical points from literature into examination for justifications such as impacts of shocks, rural development interventions, and other determinants on migrants’ decision to return and staying duration in the cities with an empirical analysis from the unique Thailand – Vietnam Socio-Economic Panel (TVSEP) data. The estimation results from the two-step Heckman model show that demographic shocks positively affect migrants’ decision to return, while social shocks affecting the migrants during the time in the cities are negatively impact their decision to return. In the outcome stage of migration period, the result signifies that economic shocks positively influence migrants’ staying period in the cities. Besides, migrants from poor communes with poverty reduction projects are more unlikely to return. This implies that current rural development policies in Vietnam with a goal of poverty reduction might not be attractive or efficient enough to fill the gap between the rural and urban regions.

Keywords: Two-step Heckman Selection; Shocks; Rural-Urban Migration; Migrants’ Behavior; Rural Development

Suggested Citation

Hung Do, Manh and Nguyen, Trung Thanh and Nguyen, Thanh-Tung and Grote, Ulrike, Shocks, Development Policies, and Rural-Urban Migration in Vietnam (February 7, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3533933 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3533933

Manh Hung Do

Leibniz Universität Hannover - Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics

Germany

Trung Thanh Nguyen (Contact Author)

Leibniz Universität Hannover ( email )

Welfengarten 1
D-30167 Hannover, 30167
Germany

Thanh-Tung Nguyen

Leibniz Universität Hannover - Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade

Germany

Ulrike Grote

Leibniz Universität Hannover - Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade

Germany

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