Incentives for Model Calibration on Decentralized Derivatives Exchanges: Consensus in Continuum

Abstract

We consider the problem of risk model calibration that is faced by all decentralized derivative exchanges. Financial model calibration is hard for two reasons: firstly it relies on data inputs that can be unreliable, incorrect and in general needing manual cleaning. Secondly, even if perfectly correct data is available the problem typically involves non-convex minimization resulting in local minima that are moreover highly dependent on small perturbations to input. Thus even honest parties won't necessarily produce the same parameters. On a decentralized exchange multiple parties need to agree on the correct calibration. Moreover, malicious actors may benefit in providing calibration parameters that benefit their trading, in case they can convince others that their calibration is the right one. Effectively we have a problem of trying to achieve consensus in continuum.

We propose a phenomenological model for the problem. We analyse this in the framework of stochastic differential games and we show that a Nash equilibrium exists. We present empirical results for simple situations that arise when the risk model is assumed to be a linear function of calibration parameters.

Keywords: Game Theory, Model Calibration, Nash Equilibrium, Derivatives