Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound

Abstract

This paper explores the consequences of extremely low real interest rates in a world with integrated but heterogenous capital markets and nominal rigidities. We establish four main results: (i) Liquidity traps spread to the rest of the world through the current account, which we illustrate with a new Metzler diagram in quantities; (ii) Beggar-thy-neighbor currency and trade wars provide stimulus to the undertaking country at the expense of other countries; (iii) (Safe) public debt issuances and increases in government spending anywhere are expansionary everywhere; (iv) At the ZLB, net issuers of safe assets experience a disproportionate share of the global stagnation.

Keywords: Liquidity and Safety Traps, Safe Assets, Global Recession, Currency Wars, Trade Wars, Current Account, Capital Flows, Reserve Currency, Secular Stagnation, Public Debt, Fiscal Policy, Balanced Budget

JEL Classification: E0, F3, F4, G1