Globalization Cycles

15 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2020

See all articles by Maurice Obstfeld

Maurice Obstfeld

University of California, Berkeley; Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research

Date Written: February 2020

Abstract

Mark Twain is reputed to have remarked that history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. While the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 was not a catastrophe on the order of World War I, there is a broad similarity in the sequelae to both of these events – a failed attempt to return to pre-trauma normalcy, followed by a process of international economic disintegration in the face of changed geopolitical realities. In this essay, I explore three questions that this similarity raises. Does globalization inherently foster domestic or international dynamics that eventually lead to political backlash? If so, are these dynamics inevitable, or can complementary economic policies nurture a stable globalization? And finally, since policies are endogenous, when are policy approaches and institutions that complement and support globalization likely to arise?

Keywords: deglobalization, Globalization

JEL Classification: F52, F53, F60, N20, N40

Suggested Citation

Obstfeld, Maurice, Globalization Cycles (February 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14378, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3535464

Maurice Obstfeld (Contact Author)

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