Establishing Pathways to Democracy Using Domination Analysis
31 Pages Posted: 17 Feb 2020
Date Written: February 10, 2020
How does the order in which liberalization unfolds affect the likelihood for a successful democratic transition? Dahl was among the first to argue that the sequence matters for the outcome when it comes to democratization. This paper builds upon his work and empirically analyzes pathways to democracy employing the newly developed method of domination analysis. We are the first to demonstrate three key findings:
1) There is a clear structure in terms of order of how most episodes of liberalization from authoritarian rule develop;
2) Such sequences are different in key respects for failed and successful episodes of liberalization; and
3) clean election elements - in the capacity of electoral management bodies - stand out as developing earlier in episodes that successfully lead to democracy.
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