FX Spot and Swap Market Liquidity Spillovers

Abstract

We study the joint evolution of foreign exchange (FX) spot and swap market liquidity. Trading in FX swaps exceeds that of spot, yet this market segment has been largely ignored in prior research on liquidity in FX markets. We find strong co-movement in spot and swap market liquidity conditions and a robust link between FX funding and market liquidity, as gleaned from the pricing of both instruments. This link has strengthened over time with changes in dealer quoting behaviour and market participation. Some of the largest dealers periodically pull back from pricing FX swaps and wider spreads attract smaller dealers. At the same time, liquidity in FX swaps remains impaired, which leads to illiquidity spillovers to the spot market. Our findings suggest that funding liquidity has become a more important driver of spot market liquidity than it used to be.

Keywords: foreign exchange, market and funding liquidity, microstructure, dealer activity, window dressing

JEL Classification: F31, G15