Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight?

60 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2020 Last revised: 22 Feb 2020

See all articles by Ethan Ilzetzki

Ethan Ilzetzki

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics

Carmen Reinhart

Harvard University

Kenneth Rogoff

Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: February 2020

Abstract

On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We document this fact with a wide range of indicators including its role as an anchor or reference in exchange rate arrangements—which we argue is a portmanteau measure—and as a currency for the denomination of trade and assets. On all these dimensions, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger a role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore the reasons for this underperformance. While the leading anchor currency may have a natural monopoly, a number of additional factors have limited the euro’s reach, including lack of financial center, limited geopolitical reach, and US and Chinese dominance in technology research. Most important, in our view, is the comparatively scarce supply of (safe) euro-denominated assets, which we document. The European Central Bank’ lack of policy clarity may have also played a role. We show that the euro era can be divided into a “Bundesbank-plus” period and a “Whatever it Takes” period. The first shows a smooth transition from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and continued to stabilize German inflation. The second period is characterised by an expanding ECB arsenal of credit facilities to European banks and sovereigns

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Suggested Citation

Ilzetzki, Ethan and Reinhart, Carmen and Rogoff, Kenneth S., Why is the Euro Punching Below its Weight? (February 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w26760, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3539327

Ethan Ilzetzki (Contact Author)

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Economics ( email )

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Carmen Reinhart

Harvard University ( email )

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Kenneth S. Rogoff

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

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