The Relevance of ‘Other Surprises’ in Explaining Earnings Announcement Returns

48 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2020

See all articles by Pawel Bilinski

Pawel Bilinski

Bayes Business School, City University London

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 13, 2020

Abstract

Previous research documents two puzzling findings that cast doubt on the usefulness of accounting information to investors: the declining power of street EPS in explaining earnings announcement returns and the increasing price reactions to earnings announcements. I show this evidence is due to omitting non-street EPS surprises from the earnings announcement analysis. When I control for ‘other surprises’ based on I/B/E/S forecasts for sales, gross margin, EBITDA, operating and net income, GAAP earnings and cash flows, the adjusted R2 increases over fourfold and street EPS lose explanatory power. The ‘other surprises’ are useful on their own and help interpret street EPS surprises, particularly small street EPS surprises, and earnings news of high accrual and growth stocks, and of high institutional ownership firms. Overall, the study identifies an important set of previously omitted variables that investors use in assessing earnings announcement information.

Keywords: earnings announcements, unexpected news, non-street EPS surprises

JEL Classification: G12, G17

Suggested Citation

Bilinski, Pawel, The Relevance of ‘Other Surprises’ in Explaining Earnings Announcement Returns (February 13, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3539358 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3539358

Pawel Bilinski (Contact Author)

Bayes Business School, City University London ( email )

106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom

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