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The Risk of Death in 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Hubei Province

40 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2020

See all articles by Vincent Yi Fong Su

Vincent Yi Fong Su

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Yao-Hsu Yang

Chang Gung Memorial Hospital - Health Information and Epidemiology Laboratory

Kuang-Yao Yang

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Kun-Ta Chou

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Wei-Juin Su

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Yuh-Min Chen

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Diahn-Warng Perng

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Tzeng-Ji Chen

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Family Medicine

Pau-Chung Chen

National Taiwan University - Institute of Occupational Medicine and Industrial Hygiene; National Taiwan University - Department of Public Health; National Taiwan University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine; National Taiwan University - Office of Occupational Safety and Health; National Taiwan University - Innovation and Policy Center for Population Health and Sustainable Environment

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Abstract

Background: The current outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV or SARS-CoV-2) in China and globally requires urgent research to guide the appropriate treatment of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods: We conducted a case-control study to the evaluate risk factors of death in patients with COVID-19. We used published data of cases from Huanan Seafood Market, Jinyintan Hospital, and deaths publicly released by the Government. The study included 41 patients partially exposed to the Huanan Seafood Market, 99 patients from Jinyintan Hospital, and 32 deaths (COVID-19 death group).

Findings: Compared to cases in the Huanan Seafood Market group and Jinyintan Hospital group, cases from the COVID-19 death group were older, with an earlier onset of dyspnea, as well as more comorbidities, shortness of breath, confusion, and chest pain. In the COVID-19 death group, patients that died within 14 days of the onset of the illness were older than patients that died after 14 days. Patients were more likely to be in the COVID-19 death group if they were older [odds ratios (OR) 26.0], had any comorbidity (OR 4.7), hypertension (OR 3.5), cardiovascular disease (OR 5.1), endocrine system disease (OR 3.5), and respiratory system disease (OR 18.1). These patients exhibited the following symptoms: shortness of breath (OR 11.8), confusion (OR 3.3), chest pain (OR 29.1), and fever + cough + shortness of breath (OR 4.4).

Interpretation: Old age, medical comorbidities, dyspnea, confusion, and chest pain at admission are associated with a higher risk of death in patients with COVID-19.

Funding Statement: The authors stated that there is no specific funding to disclose.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: The study was exempted from full review by the Institutional Review Board because the results consisted of de-identified publicly-published data.

Keywords: 2019 novel coronavirus, COVID-19, 2019-nCoV, pneumonia, death

Suggested Citation

Su, Vincent Yi Fong and Yang, Yao-Hsu and Yang, Kuang-Yao and Chou, Kun-Ta and Su, Wei-Juin and Chen, Yuh-Min and Perng, Diahn-Warng and Chen, Tzeng-Ji and Chen, Pau-Chung, The Risk of Death in 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Hubei Province (2/14/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3539655 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3539655

Vincent Yi Fong Su (Contact Author)

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine ( email )

Taipei
Taiwan

Yao-Hsu Yang

Chang Gung Memorial Hospital - Health Information and Epidemiology Laboratory

Chiayi
Taiwan

Kuang-Yao Yang

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Taipei
Taiwan

Kun-Ta Chou

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Taipei
Taiwan

Wei-Juin Su

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Taipei
Taiwan

Yuh-Min Chen

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Taipei
Taiwan

Diahn-Warng Perng

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Chest Medicine

Taipei
Taiwan

Tzeng-Ji Chen

Taipei Veterans General Hospital - Department of Family Medicine

Taipei
Taiwan

Pau-Chung Chen

National Taiwan University - Institute of Occupational Medicine and Industrial Hygiene ( email )

Taiwan

National Taiwan University - Department of Public Health ( email )

Taiwan

National Taiwan University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine ( email )

Taiwan

National Taiwan University - Office of Occupational Safety and Health ( email )

Taiwan

National Taiwan University - Innovation and Policy Center for Population Health and Sustainable Environment ( email )

Taipei
Taiwan

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