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Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China

16 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2020

See all articles by Chong You

Chong You

Peking University - Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research

Yuhao Deng

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Wenjie Hu

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Jiarui Sun

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Qiushi Lin

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Feng Zhou

Peking University - Department of Biostatistics

Cheng Heng Pang

University of Nottingham - Faculty of Science and Engineering

Yuan Zhang

National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning

Zhengchao Chen

Capital Medical University - Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital

Xiao-Hua Zhou

Peking University - Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research

More...

Abstract

Background: The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of February 11, 2020, a total of 44,730 cases of pneumonia associated with the 2019-nCoV were confirmed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers.

Results: A total of 71 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 67 dates of infections were identified among 5,405 confirmed cases outside Hubei as reported by February 2, 2020. Based on this information, we find the serial interval having an average of 4.27 days with a standard deviation of 3.44 days, the incubation period having an average of 5.33 days with a standard deviation of 3.36 days and the infectious period having an average of 10.91 days with a standard deviation of 3.95 days. The estimated controlled reproduction numbers, 𝑅𝑐 , produced by all three methods in all analyzed regions of China are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers 𝑅0.

Conclusions: The controlled reproduction number is declining. It is lower than one in most regions of China, but still larger than one in Hubei Province. Sustained efforts are needed to further keep/reduce the 𝑅𝑐 to below one in order to end the current epidemic.

Funding Statement: The authors stated that they have no financial relationships (regardless of amount of compensation) with any entities.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare there is no conflict of interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: The authors stated this was not required.

Keywords: serial interval, incubation period, infectious period, reproduction rate

Suggested Citation

You, Chong and Deng, Yuhao and Hu, Wenjie and Sun, Jiarui and Lin, Qiushi and Zhou, Feng and Pang, Cheng Heng and Zhang, Yuan and Chen, Zhengchao and Zhou, Xiao-Hua, Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China (2/17/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3539694 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3539694

Chong You

Peking University - Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research

China

Yuhao Deng

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Peking
China

Wenjie Hu

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Peking
China

Jiarui Sun

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Peking
China

Qiushi Lin

Peking University - School of Mathematical Sciences

Peking
China

Feng Zhou

Peking University - Department of Biostatistics

China

Cheng Heng Pang

University of Nottingham - Faculty of Science and Engineering

China

Yuan Zhang

National Research Institute for Health and Family Planning

China

Zhengchao Chen

Capital Medical University - Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital

251 Yaojiayuan Road
Chaoyang, Beijing 100026
China

Xiao-Hua Zhou (Contact Author)

Peking University - Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research ( email )

China

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