How A Massive Contagious Infectious Diseases Can Affect Tourism, International Trade, Air Transportation, and Electricity Consumption? The Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China

14 Pages Posted: 20 Feb 2020

See all articles by Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

University of Malaya (UM) - Social Security Research Centre (SSRC); University of Malaya (UM)

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research

Minsoo Lee

Asian Development Bank

Date Written: February 19, 2020

Abstract

This paper is interested to evaluate the final impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) on four economic strategic sectors such as the tourism, air transportation, international trade, and electricity consumption of China into a multidimensional graph simultaneously. Hence, this research paper proposes the application of the economic crisis from a massive contagious infection diseases simulator (ECMCID-Simulator) respectively. In addition, the ECMCID-Simulator tries to show a macro-dynamic analysis with different possible scenarios to evaluate how a massive contagious infection disease can affect dramatically on the economic performance of any country in the short run. Finally, the ECMCID-Simulator was applied to the case of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China.

Keywords: Economic Simulation, contagious diseases, China, Tourism, Electricity Consumption

JEL Classification: I15, I18

Suggested Citation

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo and Park, Donghyun and Lee, Minsoo, How A Massive Contagious Infectious Diseases Can Affect Tourism, International Trade, Air Transportation, and Electricity Consumption? The Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China (February 19, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3540667 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3540667

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (Contact Author)

University of Malaya (UM) - Social Security Research Centre (SSRC) ( email )

Malaysia

University of Malaya (UM) ( email )

Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan 50603
University of Malaya (UM)
Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan 50603
Malaysia

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Minsoo Lee

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

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