Trump's Effect on the Chinese Stock Market
33 Pages Posted: 16 Mar 2020 Last revised: 19 Dec 2020
Date Written: November 15, 2019
U.S. President Donald Trump tweets frequently to communicate his thoughts to the public. We quantitatively evaluate the impact of Trump's China-related tweets on the Chinese stock market. We find that following Trump’s inauguration, his tweets with a positive sentiment significantly increase abnormal returns for the manufacturing industry in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, an increase in the absolute value of his positive sentiment increases both the trading volume and volatility of the market. The positive effect is more pronounced for those subindustries with high exposure to international trade and stronger business relations with the United States than for other subindustries. The results are robust for various sensitivity tests.
Keywords: Social Media, Trump's Effect, Stock Market, Asset Pricing
JEL Classification: F30, G11, G15, G40
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