The Ongoing Epidemic of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): Infection and Fatality Trends in Wuhan, Hubei and Across China
23 Pages Posted: 25 Feb 2020More...
Background: Infectious diseases are generally preventable, however, constitute a serious menace for global public health. The ongoing outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in China affects more than 40,000people nationwide and causes fatal pulmonary and multivisceral failure in a significant fraction of them. Despite the great efforts to confine the epidemic in the epicenter city, Wuhan a sub-provincial city in Central China, Hubei Province, transmission cases have been reported in many other cities, provinces and even countries. Exact assessments of the disease progression are crucial to inform and monitor health policies intervention, allocation of resources and clinical treatment initiatives. The present study aimed to evaluate the temporal trends of infection and fatality rates of COVID-19across China.
Methods: Data from January 20 to February 10 were used. We analyzed the trends of confirmed cases, fatality and case-fatality rates in Wuhan for SARS-Cov-2-infected patients who were hospitalized. We compared the cited parameters with those of Hubei province and nationwide. Data were collected from Chinese and European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Findings: More than 40,000 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-19 infection were recorded nationwide, as of Feb 10, among which over 30,000 in Hubei province and almost 20,000are in Wuhan City. 1016 fatalities have been reported so far from SARS-CoV-19 infection nationwide. Out of 974 fatalities that occurred in Hubei province, more than 820 belong to Wuhan. The case-fatality rate across nationwide, Wuhan, Hubei and China (except Hubei) is ~2.0%, ~4.0%, ~3.0% and <1.0% respectively.
Interpretation: The nationwide and global outbreak of COVID-19 is now a fact. However, the drastic governmental measures have helped slowing down the epidemic propagation, which would have been more dramatic at this time point. A counterbalance between authorities’ leadership and the strict respect of prevention measures by local public may be needed to definitively stop the disease propagation.
Funding Statement: The Natural Science Foundation of China, the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation, and the Zhejiang Provincial Program for the Cultivation of High‐Level Innovative Health Talents.
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Keywords: COVID-19; China; infection and fatality trends
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