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Trend and Forecasting of the COVID-19 Outbreak in China

11 Pages Posted: 25 Feb 2020

See all articles by Qiang Li

Qiang Li

Northwestern Polytechnical University - School of Physical Science and Technology

Wei Feng

Xidian University - School of Electromechanical Engineering

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Abstract

By using the data from Jan.20 to Feb.11, 2020, we perform data-driven analysis and forecasting on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, especially Hubei province. Our results show that the turning points of the daily infections are predicted to be Feb.,6 and Feb.1, 2020, for Hubei and China other than Hubei, respectively. The epidemic in China is predicted to end up after Mar.10, 2020, and the number of the total infections are predicted to be 51600. The data trends reveal that quick and active strategies taken by China to reduce human exposure have already had a good impact on the control of the epidemic.

Funding Statement: This work is supported by the Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science (2019LDE005), and by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No. 310201911QD054.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Keywords: COVID-19, pneumonia, epidemic, forecasting

Suggested Citation

Li, Qiang and Feng, Wei, Trend and Forecasting of the COVID-19 Outbreak in China (2/13/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3542169 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542169

Qiang Li

Northwestern Polytechnical University - School of Physical Science and Technology ( email )

Xi’an, 710129
China

Wei Feng (Contact Author)

Xidian University - School of Electromechanical Engineering ( email )

P.O. Box 284
Xidian University
Xi'an, P.R. 710071
China

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