The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation

35 Pages Posted: 24 Feb 2020

See all articles by Ana Abeliansky

Ana Abeliansky

University of Goettingen (Gottingen)

Eda Algur

Harvard University

David E. Bloom

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Klaus Prettner

Institute of Economics; University of Goettingen (Gottingen); University of Vienna - Austrian Academy of Sciences; Vienna University of Technology - Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics

Abstract

We explore future job creation needs under conditions of demographic, economic, and technological change. First, we estimate the implications for job creation in 2020–2030 of population growth, changes in labor force participation, and the achievement of plausible target unemployment rates, disaggregated by age and gender. Second, we analyze the job creation needs differentiated by country income group. Finally, we examine how accelerated automation could affect job creation needs over the coming decades. Overall, shifting demographics, changing labor force participation rates, reductions in unemployment to the target levels of 8 percent for youth and 4 percent for adults, and automation combine to require the creation of approximately 340 million jobs in 2020–2030.

Keywords: demography, labor, unemployment

JEL Classification: J11, J21, J68, O30

Suggested Citation

Abeliansky, Ana and Algur, Eda and Bloom, David E. and Prettner, Klaus, The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation. IZA Discussion Paper No. 12962, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3542631

Ana Abeliansky (Contact Author)

University of Goettingen (Gottingen) ( email )

Platz der Gottinger Sieben 3
Gottingen, D-37073
Germany

Eda Algur

Harvard University ( email )

1875 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

David E. Bloom

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health ( email )

677 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA MA 02115
United States
617-432-0654 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Klaus Prettner

Institute of Economics ( email )

Fruwirthstr. 48
Stuttgart, 70599
Germany

University of Goettingen (Gottingen) ( email )

Platz der Gottinger Sieben 3
Gottingen, D-37073
Germany

University of Vienna - Austrian Academy of Sciences ( email )

Sonnenfelsgasse 19/2
Wien, Osterreich A-1010
Austria

Vienna University of Technology - Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics ( email )

Argentinierstr. 8
Vienna, 1040
Austria

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