The Application of the 2019-nCoV Global Economic Impact Simulator (the 2019-nCoV-GEI-Simulator) in China
15 Pages Posted: 25 Feb 2020 Last revised: 10 Mar 2020
Date Written: February 22, 2020
This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events such as the case of 2019-nCoV. The 2019-nCoV Global Economic Impact Simulator (the 2019-nCoV-GEI-Simulator) attempts to identify the 2019-nCoV transmission parameters and forecast its trajectories. The model introduces seven basic indicators - (i) the 2019-nCoV contagious spread intensity rate (SI), (ii) the treatment level for 2019-nCoV infected cases rate (T); (iii) the number of 2019-nCoV causalities rate (-C); (iv) the economic wear from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-Π); (v) the 2019-nCoV contagious cases multiplier rate (M); (vi) the total economic leaking from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-Ltotal); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-δ2019-nCoV). This specific simulator investigates the 2019-nCoV epidemic final impact on the Chinese economy domestically and internationally.
Keywords: Economic Simulation, contagious diseases, China, 2019-nCopV, Policy Modeling
JEL Classification: I15, I18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation