The Application of the 2019-nCoV Global Economic Impact Simulator (the 2019-nCoV-GEI-Simulator) in China

15 Pages Posted: 25 Feb 2020 Last revised: 10 Mar 2020

See all articles by Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

University of Malaya (UM) - Social Security Research Centre (SSRC); University of Malaya (UM)

Evangelos Koutronas

West Virginia University - Department of Mathematics

Date Written: February 22, 2020

Abstract

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of regional or global emerging and endemic infectious disease events such as the case of 2019-nCoV. The 2019-nCoV Global Economic Impact Simulator (the 2019-nCoV-GEI-Simulator) attempts to identify the 2019-nCoV transmission parameters and forecast its trajectories. The model introduces seven basic indicators - (i) the 2019-nCoV contagious spread intensity rate (SI), (ii) the treatment level for 2019-nCoV infected cases rate (T); (iii) the number of 2019-nCoV causalities rate (-C); (iv) the economic wear from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-Π); (v) the 2019-nCoV contagious cases multiplier rate (M); (vi) the total economic leaking from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-Ltotal); and (vii) the economic desgrowth from the 2019-nCoV epidemic rate (-δ2019-nCoV). This specific simulator investigates the 2019-nCoV epidemic final impact on the Chinese economy domestically and internationally.

Keywords: Economic Simulation, contagious diseases, China, 2019-nCopV, Policy Modeling

JEL Classification: I15, I18

Suggested Citation

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo and Koutronas, Evangelos, The Application of the 2019-nCoV Global Economic Impact Simulator (the 2019-nCoV-GEI-Simulator) in China (February 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3542817 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3542817

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (Contact Author)

University of Malaya (UM) - Social Security Research Centre (SSRC) ( email )

Malaysia

University of Malaya (UM) ( email )

Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan 50603
University of Malaya (UM)
Kuala Lumpur, Wilayah Persekutuan 50603
Malaysia

Evangelos Koutronas

West Virginia University - Department of Mathematics ( email )

PO Box 6201
Morgantown, WV 26506
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
187
Abstract Views
828
rank
176,778
PlumX Metrics