Epidemic Growth and Reproduction Number for the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship from January 20 to February 19, 2020: A Preliminary Data-Driven Analysis

6 Pages Posted: 24 Feb 2020

See all articles by Shi Zhao

Shi Zhao

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital

Daozhou Gao

Shanghai Normal University

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Marc KC Chong

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care

Yongli Cai

Huaiyin Normal University

Jinjun Ran

The University of Hong Kong - Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine

Kai Wang

Xinjiang Medical University

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing

Daihai He

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Maggie H. Wang

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care

Date Written: February 20, 2020

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 600 (still increasing) cases as of February 19, 2020. By using the growing process model, we demonstrated that this Diamond Princess cruise outbreak implies a short serial interval of COVID-19. Hence, timely contact tracing and effectively quarantine were crucial to shutoff the COVID-19 transmission.

Funding: DH was supported by General Research Fund (Grant Number 15205119) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China. WW was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Number 61672013) and Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (Grant Number HAP201704), Huaian, Jiangsu, China.

Declaration of Interest: The authors declared no competing interests.

Ethical Approval: The data were collected via public domain, and thus neither ethical approval nor individual consent was applicable.

Keywords: novel coronavirus disease; serial interval; reproduction number; statistical analysis; Diamond Princess ship

JEL Classification: I1

Suggested Citation

Zhao, Shi and Cao, Peihua and Gao, Daozhou and Zhuang, Zian and Chong, Marc KC and Cai, Yongli and Ran, Jinjun and Wang, Kai and Yang, Lin and He, Daihai and Wang, Maggie H., Epidemic Growth and Reproduction Number for the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship from January 20 to February 19, 2020: A Preliminary Data-Driven Analysis (February 20, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3543150 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3543150

Shi Zhao

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital ( email )

Guangzhou, Guangdong Province
China

Daozhou Gao

Shanghai Normal University ( email )

No.100 Guilin Road
Shanghai, 200234
China

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Marc KC Chong

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Yongli Cai

Huaiyin Normal University ( email )

Huai'an, Jiangsu
China

Jinjun Ran

The University of Hong Kong - Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine ( email )

Pokfulam Road
Hong Kong, Pokfulam HK
China

Kai Wang

Xinjiang Medical University ( email )

393 Xinyi Rd, Xinshi Qu
Wulumuqi Shi
Xinjiang Weiwuerzizhiqu, 830011
China

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing ( email )

11 Yuk Choi Rd
Hung Hom
Hong Kong

Daihai He (Contact Author)

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Maggie H. Wang

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care ( email )

Hong Kong
China

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