Lumpy Investment, Fluctuations in Volatility, and Monetary Policy
57 Pages Posted: 16 Mar 2020 Last revised: 8 Mar 2021
Date Written: February 14, 2020
I argue that monetary policy is less effective at stimulating investment during periods of elevated volatility in firm-level TFP than during normal times. Empirically, I document that high volatility weakens investment responses to monetary stimulus. I then develop a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with lumpy investment to interpret these findings. In the model, non-convex capital adjustment costs create a sizable extensive margin of investment which is more sensitive to changes in both interest rate and volatility than the intensive margin. When volatility is high, firms tend to stay inactive at the extensive margin, so monetary stimulus motivates less investment at the extensive margin. I find that the quantitative implications of the model are primarily shaped by the specifications of the capital adjustment costs. Unlike much of the prior literature, I use the dynamic moments of investment to identify this key model element. Based on this parameterization, high volatility reduces the effectiveness of monetary stimulus for investment by 30%. This reduction is about half of what I find in the data. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy depends on both the lumpy nature of firm-level investment and fluctuations in volatility.
Keywords: Lumpy investment; Ss model; irreversibility; volatility; uncertainty; firm heterogeneity; monetary policy;
JEL Classification: E52, E32, E22
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation