lancet-header
Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals and other research experts identify content of interest prior to publication. These preprint papers are not peer-reviewed. Authors have either opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet, or submitted directly via SSRN. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These papers should not be used for clinical decision making or reporting of research to a lay audience without indicating that this is preliminary research that has not been peer-reviewed. For more information see the Comment published in The Lancet, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact preprints@lancet.com

Phase- and Epidemic Regions- Adjusted Estimation of the Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases in China

21 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2020

See all articles by Rujie Chang

Rujie Chang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Huwen Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Shuxian Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Zezhou Wang

Fudan University - Department of Oncology

Yinqiao Dong

China Medical University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health

Lhakpa Tsamlag

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Xiaoyue Yu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Chen Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Yuelin Yu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Rusi Long

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Ning-Ning Liu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Qiao Chu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Ying Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Gang Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Tian Shen

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Suping Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Xiaobei Deng

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Jinyan Huang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics

Xinxin Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology

Hui Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

Yong Cai

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

More...

Abstract

Background: The outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019 and gradually spread to other areas in Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China. After implementation of prevention and control measures in China, the estimation of the epidemic trend is needed so as to predict the possible infection scale and epidemic characteristics of COVID-19, furtherly, to provide potential evaluation criteria for the effectiveness of current prevention and control measures and, to offer theoretical support for current decision-making on infectious disease prevention.

Methods: A phase- and region-adjusted SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed) model was applied for modeling and predicting the number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, Hubei Province and regions outside Hubei Province in China.

Findings: The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February 2020 in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which is 55,303–84,520 and 83,944–129,312, respectively. The epidemic peaks in regions outside Hubei Province in China appeared on 13th Feb with the estimated 13,035–19,108 confirmed cases. Wuhan had an infection rate of more than 3,900 per million population as of 18th Feb 2020. In the areas adjacent to Wuhan, the average infection rate was around 550 per million population. In major financial regions (Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong) and provinces neighboring Hubei Province, the infection rate was over 10 per million population.

Interpretation: It is reasonable to speculate that the outbreak would be braked soon with the very strong prevention measures taken all over China. Current estimation provided evidence for planned work resumption under stringent prevention and control in regions outside Hubei Province in China to further support the fight against the epidemic. Nevertheless, strict prevention and control measures should still be maintained, especially in the regions with high intensity of epidemic such as Hunan, Guangzhou, Zhejiang Province as well as densely-populated cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, considering the possibility of the second outbreak brought by the work resumption and population migration, especially from Hubei Province and high-intensity cities outside Hubei Province.

Funding Statement: This work is funded by Medicine and Engineering Interdisciplinary Research Fund of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (YG2020YQ06), the National Key Research and Development Project (2018YFC1705100, 2018YFC1705103) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71673187).

Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: SEIR model; COVID-19; Estimate; China

Suggested Citation

Chang, Rujie and Wang, Huwen and Zhang, Shuxian and Wang, Zezhou and Dong, Yinqiao and Tsamlag, Lhakpa and Yu, Xiaoyue and Xu, Chen and Yu, Yuelin and Long, Rusi and Liu, Ning-Ning and Chu, Qiao and Wang, Ying and Xu, Gang and Shen, Tian and Wang, Suping and Deng, Xiaobei and Huang, Jinyan and Zhang, Xinxin and Wang, Hui and Cai, Yong, Phase- and Epidemic Regions- Adjusted Estimation of the Number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases in China (February 19, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3543585 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3543585

Rujie Chang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Huwen Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Shuxian Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Zezhou Wang

Fudan University - Department of Oncology

China

Yinqiao Dong

China Medical University - Department of Environmental and Occupational Health

Shenyang
China

Lhakpa Tsamlag

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Xiaoyue Yu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Chen Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Yuelin Yu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Rusi Long

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Ning-Ning Liu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Qiao Chu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Ying Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Gang Xu

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Tian Shen

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Suping Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Xiaobei Deng

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Jinyan Huang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics ( email )

Shanghai
China

Xinxin Zhang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology ( email )

Ruijin Er Road 197
Shanghai, 200025
China

Hui Wang

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health ( email )

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Yong Cai (Contact Author)

Shanghai Jiao Tong University (SJTU) - School of Public Health ( email )

227 Chongqing South Road
Luwan District, 200025
China

Click here to go to TheLancet.com

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
1,177
Downloads
81