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Current Situation of the Corona Virus Disease Under Active Control and Prevention in China, Outside Hubei Province: A Real-World Epidemiological Analysis
49 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2020
More...Abstract
Background: With the closure of Hubei Province on January 25, 2020, the Chinese government divided the program for control and prevention measures against COVID-19 into two parts: reinforcement of medical resources for diagnosis and treatment in Hubei province and reduction of the spread of the epidemic to control and prevention outside Hubei Province.
Methods: We collected 4,959 COVID-19 cases from eight districts in China up to February 13, 2020, and analysed the epidemiological characteristics.
Findings: The median age was 46 years old, and 46⋅7% were female. It is estimated that the confirmed diagnosis rate of the inflow population in Wuhan from eight districts is 0⋅16% (range 0⋅10-0⋅38%). Fever was the most common symptom (65⋅1%). The growth trends of imported and non-imported cases were similar with two peak periods separated by six days. The second-generation began to decline five days after the first-generation reached the peak. The second-generation cases had no exact peak. Five days after entering the high plateau period of the second-generation, the third-generation cases reached a peak and gradually declined. Meanwhile, new cases nationwide (except Hubei) have entered a rapid downward trend. The median time from visit to hospitalization for imported patients was seven days (4–10), and the median time from illness onset to hospital for non-import patients was two days (0–5). A total of 647 clustering events that caused 1,398 cases of infection were found.
Interpretation: The incubation period of COVID-19 is verified to be approximately 5-6 days. The first- and second-generation cases have been well controlled, and the daily number of third-generation cases is gradually decreasing. The epidemic reached a turning point in China except for Hubei on February 6. The control and prevention of cluster events may be the key to final victory.
Funding Statement: The authors stated that this study was not funded.
Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics Approval Statement: All data have been released publicly by the Chinese (CDC) and the provincial and local municipal Health Commission; therefore, this study was exempted from institutional review board approval.
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