Cross-Border Portfolio Flows and News Media Coverage

41 Pages Posted: 27 Feb 2020

See all articles by Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Guglielmo Maria Caporale

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance; London South Bank University; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Faek Menla Ali

Brunel University London

Fabio Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Nicola Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic linkages between portfolio flows and various news indices (based on both "positive" and "negative" news headlines collected from Bloomberg), whilst also controlling for a comprehensive set of push and pull factors. The monthly panel examined comprises 49 developed and developing countries in addition to the US (the "home economy") and covers the period from January 2007 to October 2017; the econometric model includes fixed effects. The empirical results document the important role played by the news variables. More specifically, news pessimism and intensity affect bond flows more than equity flows, and US news appears to play a leading role in these portfolio flow dynamics. By contrast, changes in news pessimism and intensity have a more significant impact on equity flows, and again US news tend to have more sizeable effects. News sentiment is generally found to be an important driver of portfolio flows, whilst only US news disagreement has a significant effect, and only on bond inflows into the US. Most results are robust to the exclusion of the six financial centres from the full sample. As for push and pull factors, most of them (equity return differentials, interest rate spreads, the VIX index, capital controls, exchange rate regimes, CDS spreads, QE episodes, financial development and commodity prices) are significant and with the expected signs.

Keywords: Bloomberg, bond flows, equity flows, news

JEL Classification: F310, F320, G150

Suggested Citation

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria and Menla Ali, Faek and Spagnolo, Fabio and Spagnolo, Nicola, Cross-Border Portfolio Flows and News Media Coverage (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8112, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3544498

Guglielmo Maria Caporale (Contact Author)

Brunel University London - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Kingston Lane
Marie Jahoda Building
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
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+44 1895 266713 (Phone)
+44 1895 269770 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/about/acad/bbs/bbsstaff/ef_staff/guglielmocaporale/

London South Bank University ( email )

Centre for Monetary and Financial Economics
London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Faek Menla Ali

Brunel University London ( email )

Kingston Lane
Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

Fabio Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance ( email )

Uxbridge UB8 3PH
United Kingdom
+44 1895 816383 (Phone)
+44 1895 203303 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/depts/ecf/Staff/SpagnoloF/Main.htm

Nicola Spagnolo

Brunel University London - Economics and Finance ( email )

Uxbridge UB8 3PH
United Kingdom

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