Epidemics and Conflict: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak in Western Africa

Abstract

This paper provides causal evidence of the impact of a rapidly spreading epidemic on civil violence, and sheds light on its drivers. Novel data at high spatial and temporal resolution of the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa reveal that epidemics spark civil violence, driven by low trust in state institutions. Epidemics generate an increased demand for public goods, calling for a rapid response from the state, including its coercive power. However, its ability to respond is limited in weak institutional settings. We find that different types of containment efforts have opposite effects, depending on existing levels of trust. The provision of public health facilities unambiguously lowers violence, while area blockades lead to a rise in violence only among groups that mistrust the state. The effects of the epidemic on civil violence persist years after the outbreak ended.

Keywords: conflict, violence, health, epidemics, institutions, trust, public goods, Africa

JEL Classification: C23, D74, H41, I15, N37, O11, O12, O19, P16