Reverse Stress Testing, Bottom Up

Abstract

We propose a bottom-up quantitative reverse stress testing framework that identifies forward-looking fragilities tailored to a bank's portfolio, credit and funding strategies, models, and calibration constraints. Thus, instead of relying on historical events, we run a Monte Carlo simulation, and we mine those future states that contribute the most to a bank's cost of capital expressed in terms of scenario differential.
This approach allows identifying both the systemic and idiosyncratic weaknesses of the bank’s portfolio, with applications that include solvency risk, extreme events hedging, liquidity risk
management, trading and credit limits, model validation and model risk management.

Keywords: Model Validation, Stress Testing, Reverse Stress Testing, Capital Models, Risk Margins, Trading Limits, Cost of Capital, KVA, Model Risk, Short Rate Models, PFE

JEL Classification: D81, G13, G28, G32