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The Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China

24 Pages Posted: 3 Mar 2020

See all articles by Bilin Chen

Bilin Chen

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Huanhuan Zhong

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Yueyan Ni

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Lulu Liu

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Jinjin Zhong

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Xin Su

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

More...

Abstract

Background: The epidemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, China, and spread rapidly. Since Jan 23, 2020, China launched a series of unusual and strict measures including lockdown of Wuhan city to put out this highly contagious disease. We collected the epidemiological data to analyze the trend of this epidemic in China.

Methods: We had been closely tracking the Chinese and global official websites to collect the epidemiological information of COVID-19. The number of total and daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China were presented to illustrate the trend of this epidemic.

Findings: On January 23, 2020, 835 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in China. On February 6, there were 31211 cases. By February 20, the number reached as high as 75,993. Most cases were distributed in and around Wuhan, Hubei province. The number of daily new cases in China except Hubei province reached the peak of 890 on the eleventh day since January 23, and then declined to a low level of 34 within two full-length incubation periods (28 days), while the number of Hubei’s also started to decrease on the twelfth day since January 23, from 3156 on February 4 to 955 on February 15. The number of existing confirmed cases in China outside Hubei province started to decrease on February 11 and kept decreasing, while the number of Hubei started to decrease on February 18, and kept decreasing, too.

Interpretation: The epidemic of COVID-19 has been primarily contained in China. The fight against this epidemic in China provided valuable experiences for the rest of the world. The strict measures need to be taken as earlier as possible to prevent its spreading.

Funding Statement: This work was supported by the Project of Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant number 81873400], the Key Project of Jiangsu Commission of Health (K2019004), and “333 project” of Jiangsu Province (BRA2019339).

Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: Coronavirus Disease 2019, epidemiology, disease control

Suggested Citation

Chen, Bilin and Zhong, Huanhuan and Ni, Yueyan and Liu, Lulu and Zhong, Jinjin and Su, Xin, The Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China (2/26/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3546054 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3546054

Bilin Chen

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Nanjing, 210002
China

Huanhuan Zhong

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Nanjing, 210002
China

Yueyan Ni

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Nanjing, 210002
China

Lulu Liu

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Nanjing, 210002
China

Jinjin Zhong

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine

Nanjing, 210002
China

Xin Su (Contact Author)

Nanjing University - Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine ( email )

Nanjing, 210002
China

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