Technological Interdependencies Predict Innovation Dynamics
25 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2020
Date Written: March 2, 2020
We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and fond that the predictability of innovation rates can be boosted substantially when network effects are taken into account. In the case where a technology's neighbourhood further innovation rates are known, the average predictability gain is 28% compared to simpler time series model with do not incorporate network effects. Even when nothing is known about the future, we find positive average predictability gains of 20%. The results have important policy implications, suggesting that the effective support of a given technology must take into account the technological ecosystem surrounding the targeted technology.
Keywords: innovation technology network forecasting patents spatial econometrics
JEL Classification: O30 O31 O32 O33 C31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation