Epidemic Features and Control of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Wenzhou, China
28 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2020More...
Background: Since the outbreak in Wuhan China in December 2019, novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has spread rapidly throughout the whole nation. Besides Wuhan, Wenzhou is the city with the most confirmed cases outside Hubei Province.
Methods: We analyzed the epidemiological features of COVID-19, the control measures taken and their effects. The characteristic of temporal and spatial distribution were analyzed with Geographic Information System (GIS), the basic reproductive number (R0) was calculated with the improved SEIR model, trend of cumulative cases is analyzed with Logistic Regression model.
Findings: The results showed that a large number of people poured into Wenzhou from Hubei Province, which is the main reason for the outbreak of COVID-19. Confirmed patients gather mostly at Yueqing, Ruian counties, and the incidence peak appeared on Jan.29 and Feb.3, imported cases from Hubei decreased on Jan.30. For the emergency preparedness the strong control measures based on the principle of “three-level prevention” has been launched, an obvious decrease of R 0 appeared from 29 Jan, 2020, the median interval between onset and diagnosis of patients shortened from 7 to 3 days. A downward-point was expected on Feb.10, 2020 based on the logistic model, which has been validated in line with the reality.
Interpretation: For the outbreak of such infectious diseases as COVID-19, public health methods play greater roles in controlling the epidemic.
Funding Statement: This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (81972969, 81872558, 81773363 and 81673092).
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Keywords: novel coronavirus pneumonia; Wenzhou; three-level prevention; three dimensional distribution; public health; basic reproductive number (R0)
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