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Epidemic Features and Control of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Wenzhou, China

28 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2020

See all articles by Hong Huang

Hong Huang

Wenzhou Medical University - Health Assessment Center

Yi Wang

Wenzhou Medical University - Department of Epidemiology and Statistics

Zhenfeng Wang

Wenzhou Medical University - .Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Watershed Science and Health

Zhenzhen Liang

Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Shugen Qu

Wenzhou Medical University - .Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Watershed Science and Health

Shumei Ma

Wenzhou Medical University - .Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Watershed Science and Health

Guangyun Mao

Wenzhou Medical University - Department of Epidemiology and Statistics

Xiaodong Liu

Wenzhou Medical University - Health Assessment Center

More...

Abstract

Background: Since the outbreak in Wuhan China in December 2019, novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has spread rapidly throughout the whole nation. Besides Wuhan, Wenzhou is the city with the most confirmed cases outside Hubei Province.

Methods: We analyzed the epidemiological features of COVID-19, the control measures taken and their effects. The characteristic of temporal and spatial distribution were analyzed with Geographic Information System (GIS), the basic reproductive number (R0) was calculated with the improved SEIR model, trend of cumulative cases is analyzed with Logistic Regression model.

Findings: The results showed that a large number of people poured into Wenzhou from Hubei Province, which is the main reason for the outbreak of COVID-19. Confirmed patients gather mostly at Yueqing, Ruian counties, and the incidence peak appeared on Jan.29 and Feb.3, imported cases from Hubei decreased on Jan.30. For the emergency preparedness the strong control measures based on the principle of “three-level prevention” has been launched, an obvious decrease of R 0 appeared from 29 Jan, 2020, the median interval between onset and diagnosis of patients shortened from 7 to 3 days. A downward-point was expected on Feb.10, 2020 based on the logistic model, which has been validated in line with the reality.

Interpretation: For the outbreak of such infectious diseases as COVID-19, public health methods play greater roles in controlling the epidemic.

Funding Statement: This study was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (81972969, 81872558, 81773363 and 81673092).

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Keywords: novel coronavirus pneumonia; Wenzhou; three-level prevention; three dimensional distribution; public health; basic reproductive number (R0)

Suggested Citation

Huang, Hong and Wang, Yi and Wang, Zhenfeng and Liang, Zhenzhen and Qu, Shugen and Ma, Shumei and Mao, Guangyun and Liu, Xiaodong, Epidemic Features and Control of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in Wenzhou, China (3/3/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3550007 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550007

Hong Huang (Contact Author)

Wenzhou Medical University - Health Assessment Center

Wenzhou, 325035
China

Yi Wang

Wenzhou Medical University - Department of Epidemiology and Statistics

Wehzhou, 325035
China

Zhenfeng Wang

Wenzhou Medical University - .Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Watershed Science and Health

Wenzhou, 325035
China

Zhenzhen Liang

Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Binjiang
Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310051
China

Shugen Qu

Wenzhou Medical University - .Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Watershed Science and Health

Wenzhou, 325035
China

Shumei Ma

Wenzhou Medical University - .Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Watershed Science and Health

Wenzhou, 325035
China

Guangyun Mao

Wenzhou Medical University - Department of Epidemiology and Statistics ( email )

Wehzhou, 325035
China

Xiaodong Liu

Wenzhou Medical University - Health Assessment Center ( email )

Wenzhou, 325035
China

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