Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019

16 Pages Posted: 11 Mar 2020

See all articles by Robert J. Shiller

Robert J. Shiller

Yale University - Cowles Foundation; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Yale University - International Center for Finance

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Date Written: March 9, 2020

Abstract

The U.S. economic expansion since 2009 is the longest on record since 1854, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee. This paper seeks to understand this phenomenon better by looking at the time paths of popular narratives over this interval, of stories that people have been telling that offer clues into their economic behavior. Six constellations of narratives are studied, identified by keywords “Great Depression,” “secular stagnation,” “sustainability,” “housing bubble,” “strong economy,” and “save more.”

Keywords: Economic fluctuations, Narratives, Stories, Great Depression, Secular stagnation, Sustainability, Housing bubble, Strong economy, Save more

Suggested Citation

Shiller, Robert J., Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019 (March 9, 2020). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2223, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3551218 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551218

Robert J. Shiller (Contact Author)

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