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Modelling-Based Evaluation of the Effect of Quarantine Control by the Chinese Government in the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak

21 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2020

See all articles by Xinkai Zhou

Xinkai Zhou

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Zhigui Wu

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Ranran Yu

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Shanni Cao

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Wen Fang

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Zhen Jiang

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Fang Yuan

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Chao Yan

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Dijun Chen

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

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Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, which was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has rapidly spread all over China and across the world. By the end of February 2020, the epidemic outside Hubei province in China has been well controlled, yet the next wave of transmission in other countries may have just begun. A retrospective modeling of the transmission dynamics would provide insights into the epidemiological characteristics of the disease and evaluation of the effectiveness of the strict measures that have been taken by central and local governments of China. Using a refined susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) transmission model and a new strategy of model fitting, we were able to estimate model parameters in a dynamic manner. The resulting parameter estimation can well reflect the prevention policy scenarios. Our simulation results with different degrees of government control suggest that the strictly enforced quarantine and travel ban have significantly decreased the otherwise uncontrollable spread of the disease. Our results suggest similar measures should be considered by other countries that are of high risk of COVID-19 outbreak.

Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (21877060).

Declaration of Interest: We declare no competing interests.

Suggested Citation

Zhou, Xinkai and Wu, Zhigui and Yu, Ranran and Cao, Shanni and Fang, Wen and Jiang, Zhen and Yuan, Fang and Yan, Chao and Chen, Dijun, Modelling-Based Evaluation of the Effect of Quarantine Control by the Chinese Government in the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak (3/7/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3551346 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551346

Xinkai Zhou

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Nanjing
China

Zhigui Wu

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Nanjing, 210023
China

Ranran Yu

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Nanjing, 210023
China

Shanni Cao

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Nanjing, 210023
China

Wen Fang

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Nanjing, 210023
China

Zhen Jiang

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Nanjing, 210023
China

Fang Yuan

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology

Nanjing, 210023
China

Chao Yan

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology ( email )

Nanjing, 210023
China

Dijun Chen (Contact Author)

Nanjing University - State Key Laboratory of Pharmaceutical Biotechnology ( email )

Nanjing, 210023
China

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