Housing Need in Canada: Age-Period-Cohort Effects and Transitions

Abstract

We use the Core Housing Need (CHN) indicator to measure Canadians' housing need accounting for the affordability, suitability, and adequacy of housing. Using census data, we estimate the age, period, and cohort effect on housing need, and find a reverse U-shaped relationship between age and housing need. We classify the flows of housing need into common typologies, and examine the probability of transitions in and out of housing need between census cycles. Among the individuals who are not in core housing need during the 2006 or 2011 cycle, 5.4% are found to be in core housing need 5 years later. For those in core housing need during the 2006 or 2011 cycle, 37.4% remain in need after 5 years. These transition probabilities vary across population groups. We find that a 10% increase in household income reduces the odds of remaining in core housing need by 20%. Other socio-economic circumstances, such as changes in living arrangements and marital status, are also significantly associated with the housing need transitions.

Keywords: housing affordability, Core Housing Need, age-period-cohort analysis, housing need transition, typology of housing need flows

JEL Classification: R21, D19, J10