A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics
5 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2020 Last revised: 6 Apr 2020
Date Written: March 9, 2020
We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19. The model is a Poisson autoregression, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are presented from the observed series of China, Iran, Italy and South Korea.
Note: Funding: We declare the absence of any specific funding for the research behind our submission.
Declaration of Interest: We also declare the non existence of any competing interests.
Keywords: Contagion, Covid-19, Poisson autoregressive models
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