A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics

5 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2020 Last revised: 20 Jul 2020

Date Written: March 9, 2020

Abstract

We present a statistical model which can be employed to understand the contagion dynamics of the COVID-19. The model is a Poisson autoregression, and can reveal whether contagion has a trend, and where is each country on that trend. Model results are presented from the observed series of China, Iran, Italy and South Korea.

Note: Funding: We declare the absence of any specific funding for the research behind our submission.

Declaration of Interest: We also declare the non existence of any competing interests.

Keywords: Contagion, Covid-19, Poisson autoregressive models

Suggested Citation

Agosto, Arianna and Giudici, Paolo, A Poisson Autoregressive Model to Understand COVID-19 Contagion Dynamics (March 9, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3551626 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551626

Arianna Agosto

University of Pavia ( email )

Corso Strada Nuova, 65
27100 Pavia, 27100
Italy

Paolo Giudici (Contact Author)

University of Pavia ( email )

Via San Felice 7
27100 Pavia, 27100
Italy

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