Trend of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 Epidemic in China After the Lockdown of Wuhan City on January 23, 2020
33 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2020More...
Background: The Chinese Government decided to quarantine Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, on January 23, 2020, to control the spread of the epidemic. We analyzed the data on incidence, severity, deaths, and recovered of COVID-19 across the whole country, in Hubei province, and in the other provinces, to identify the incubation period of the disease and the inflection point of the epidemic.
Methods: We analyzed the data released by the Health Commission of Hubei Province and the National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China from January 23 to March 1, 2020. We examined the following: cumulative number of confirmed cases and daily new confirmed cases, total number of severe cases in hospital and daily number of new severe cases, cumulative number of deaths and daily deaths, cumulative number of recovered cases and daily new recovered cases, total number of suspected cases, cumulative number of close contacts, cumulative number removed from medical observation and number receiving medical observation.
Results: From January 23 to March 1, 2020, 80,026 confirmed cases were reported in the whole country, with 67,103 (83·7%) cases reported from Hubei province and 12,923 (16·3%) cases from the other provinces. After the lockdown of Wuhan city, the number of confirmed cases reported daily continued to increase and peaked on February 4. From February 5 to March 1, the number of cases gradually decreased by 85·0% in the whole country, 83·2% in Hubei province, and 92·8% in the other provinces. The number of deaths continues to increase because of the large number of severe cases in hospitals. The severe case rate was 18·3% in the whole country, 19·3% in Hubei province, and 12·7% in other provinces. The case fatality rate was 3·6% in the whole country, 4·2% in Hubei province, and 0·8% in the other provinces. Cumulative recovery rate was 55·6% in the whole country, 50·5% in Hubei province, and 80·2% in the other provinces. Case fatality was high in patients aged above 60 years (mortality >80%), males (mortality 76·5%), and patients with comorbidities (mortality 64·7%).
Conclusions: The lockdown of Wuhan city appears to have been effective in controlling the spread of the epidemic. The inflection point appeared on February 4, and since then the number of new cases has fallen sharply. The highest risk of mortality appears to be in elderly males with comorbidities. The mortality rates may continue to rise because of the large number of seriously ill patients in hospitals. However, the recovery rate can be expected to rise sharply as new treatments are introduced.
Funding Statement: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31660326); Natural Science Foundation of Guizhou Province (No. 1015, 2759, 5735, and 1019); Top Talent Foundation of the Department of Education of Guizhou Province (No. 074); Natural Science Foundation of Guiyang City (No. 9-2-2, 9-2-22); Doctoral Foundation of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (No. GYZYYFY-BS-2018); and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2018M640938 and 43XB3794XB).
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Keywords: COVID-19; Inflection period; Severe case rate; Fatality rate; Recovery rate
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