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What is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Upon Lifting the Metropolitan-Wide Quarantine of Wuhan City, China: A Mathematical Modelling Study

35 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2020

See all articles by Lei Zhang

Lei Zhang

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases; Monash University - School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

Mingwang Shen

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - School of Public Health

Xiaomeng Ma

University of Toronto - Department of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation

Shu Su

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases

Wenfeng Gong

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Jing Wang

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases

Yusha Tao

Monash University - School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

Zhuoru Zou

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases

Rui Zhao

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases

Joseph Lau

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Centre for Research Behaviors

Wei Li

Southeast University (China) - Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics

Feng Liu

Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Kai Ye

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks & Networks Security

Youfa Wang

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - Health Science Center

Guihua Zhuang

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases

Christopher K. Fairley

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases; Alfred Health - Melbourne Sexual Health Centre; Harvard University - Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases

More...

Abstract

Background: The Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23 rd January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Lifting of this quarantine is imminent. We modelled the effects of two key health interventions on the epidemic when the quarantine is lifted.

Method: We constructed a compartmental dynamic model to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic at different quarantine lifting dates and investigated the impact of different rates of public contact and facial mask usage on the epidemic.

Results: We projected a declining trend of the COVID-19 epidemic if the current quarantine strategy continues, and Wuhan would record the last new confirmed cases on 25 th April 2020. At the end of the epidemic, 65,572 (46,156-95,264) individuals would be infected by the virus, among which 16,144 (14,422-23,447, 24.6%) were through public contacts, 45,795 (32,390-66,395, 69.7%) through household contact, and 3,633 (2,344-5,865, 5.5%) through hospital contacts (including 783 (553-1,134) non-COVID-19 patients and 2,850 (1,801-4,981) medical staff). A total of 3,262 (1,592-6,470) would die of COVID-19 related pneumonia in Wuhan. Early quarantine lifting on 21 st March is viable only if Wuhan residents sustain a high facial mask usage of ≥85% and a pre-quarantine level public contact rate. Delaying city resumption to mid/late April would relax the requirement of facial mask usage to ≥75% at the same contact rate.

Conclusion: The prevention of a second epidemic is viable after the metropolitan-wide quarantine is lifted but requires a sustaining high facial mask usage and a low public contact rate.

Funding Statement: This work is supported by a Research Grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Declaration of Interests: None.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemic projection; metropolitan-wide quarantine; mathematical modelling

Suggested Citation

Zhang, Lei and Shen, Mingwang and Ma, Xiaomeng and Su, Shu and Gong, Wenfeng and Wang, Jing and Tao, Yusha and Zou, Zhuoru and Zhao, Rui and Lau, Joseph and Li, Wei and Liu, Feng and Ye, Kai and Wang, Youfa and Zhuang, Guihua and Fairley, Christopher K., What is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Upon Lifting the Metropolitan-Wide Quarantine of Wuhan City, China: A Mathematical Modelling Study (3/11/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3555236 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555236

Lei Zhang (Contact Author)

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases ( email )

Xi'an
China

Monash University - School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine ( email )

Australia

Mingwang Shen

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - School of Public Health

China

Xiaomeng Ma

University of Toronto - Department of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation

Toronto
Canada

Shu Su

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases

Xi’an
China

Wenfeng Gong

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

P.O. Box 23350
Seattle, WA 98102
United States

Jing Wang

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases

Xi’an
China

Yusha Tao

Monash University - School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

Australia

Zhuoru Zou

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases

Xi'an
China

Rui Zhao

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases

Xi’an
China

Joseph Lau

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Centre for Research Behaviors

China

Wei Li

Southeast University (China) - Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics

Nanjing, Jiangsu
China

Feng Liu

Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Xi’an, Shaanxi 710054
China

Kai Ye

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks & Networks Security ( email )

Xi’an
China

Youfa Wang

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - Health Science Center ( email )

P.R.
China

Guihua Zhuang

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases ( email )

Xi'an
China

Christopher K. Fairley

Xi'an Jiaotong University (XJTU) - China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases

Xi'an
China

Alfred Health - Melbourne Sexual Health Centre

Melbourne
Australia

Harvard University - Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases

Cambridge, MA
United States

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