Retrospective Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak Caused by Administrative Actions of Wuhan Authorities: Mistakes Should Be Avoided in Other Country
18 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2020More...
Background: In early December 2019 the first COVID-19 case appeared in Wuhan, China, and then turned into a nationwide epidemic one month later. Besides Wuhan the epidemic situation relieved rapidly soon after the central government of China intervene. The infection rate of Wuhan's medical staff was higher than national average. Officials of central government claimed that they did not have precise assessment about the path of potential infection on February 14. We chose to stay in Wuhan to investigate why the outbreak occurred.
Methods: With data post by the National Health committee of China, we estimate the basic reproductive number R 0 of COVID-19 in Wuhan and the number of possible COVID-19 infections through the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model. We compared the daily new cases of the outbreak in Hubei province (excluding Wuhan), Zhejiang, Guangdong and Henan province with Wuhan until February 17, 2020, and estimated the impact of administrative actions of the Wuhan authorities in the early stages of the epidemic.
Findings: By fitting the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan from January 27 to February 10, 2020, we estimated that R 0 =2·88, the number of cases on January 21 was 1199 cases. The number of new cases in Wuhan had increased at a median rate of 1548·0 cases (IQR 928·8-1882·3) next 22 single day since January 27, other areas decline gradually several days later. The administrative actions of Wuhan authorities increased the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, provided new routes for transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak, and medical staffs were put in danger of infection by Wuhan authorities.
Interpretation: The Wuhan authorities restricted citizens' freedom of expression, prevent Dr.Li from warning citizen and medical staff about infectivity of COVID-19. The administrative actions of Wuhan authorities artificially creating hospital outpatient cross-infection and additional close contacts. The influence of authorities infringe upon human rights on epidemic prevention need special research by future studies.
Funding Statement: No funding.
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics Approval Statement: The authors stated that this research is based on the public announcement of the epidemic situation by the State Council of the PRC and other government-published data. It is a statutory procedure for open government affairs, and therefore does not require the approval of an institutional review committee.
Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, SEIAR model, public health
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation