Stopping COVID-19: A Pandemic-Management Service Value Chain Approach
Baveja, Alok, Kapoor, Ajai and Melamed, Benjamin, Stopping COVID-19: A Pandemic-Management Service Value Chain Approach (Publication in the Annals of Operations Research, Forthcoming).
12 Pages Posted: 17 Mar 2020 Last revised: 4 May 2020
Date Written: March 16, 2020
A logical strategy to contain the COVID-19 pandemic is to completely isolate everyone for two weeks (the incubation period of the virus). However, such a strategy can have prohibitive economic and social costs and, therefore, will be difficult to implement. At the same time, the current situation is leading to an expanding humanitarian, health and economic crisis. Based on principles of the Theory of Constraints, we propose in this article the “Shutting-down Transmission Of Pandemic” (STOP COVID-19) plan that would reliably contain the pandemic, mitigate its economic consequences, and boost societal confidence. This plan requires the implementation of four strategies over 90 days – (a) Stop all international, domestic passenger air and intercity bus/train travel; (b) Create administrative zones of about 1 million people; (c) Stop all non-emergency cross-zonal travel except for transportation of goods, and (d) Deploy an information-driven service value chain to control the spread of the pandemic within a zone.
Keywords: Pandemic, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Theory of Constraints, Action Plan, Pandemic Policy, Service Value Chain, Supply Chain, Bottleneck, Constraint, Testing, Tracing
JEL Classification: H12, H30, M10, M11, M15, M20, C00, C02
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation