Does Climate Change Make Foodgrain Yields More Unpredictable? Evidence from India

56 Pages Posted: 17 Mar 2020

See all articles by Saumya Verma

Saumya Verma

University of Delhi - Lady Shri Ram College

Shreekant Gupta

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy; University of Delhi - Delhi School of Economics

Partha Sen

Centre for Development Economics

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

How would climate change affect India's agriculture which accounts for sixty percent of employment? We study the impact of climate change on the level and variability of yields of rice (India's major food crop) and two key millet crops (sorghum and pearl millet), using an all India district level panel dataset from 1966-2011. A stochastic production function is estimated with exogenous climate anomalies. We find that climate change adversely affects both the level and variability of crop yields - rice yields are reduced by rainfall extremes whereas extremely high temperatures make yields of all three crops highly variable with the biggest impact on millets.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, foodgrain yields, India, millets, rice, stochastic production function

JEL Classification: Q540, O130, D240

Suggested Citation

Verma, Saumya and Gupta, Shreekant and Gupta, Shreekant and Sen, Partha, Does Climate Change Make Foodgrain Yields More Unpredictable? Evidence from India (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8161, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3555588 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555588

Saumya Verma (Contact Author)

University of Delhi - Lady Shri Ram College ( email )

Delhi, 110024
India

Shreekant Gupta

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy ( email )

469C Bukit Timah Road
Oei Tiong Ham Building
Singapore, 259772
Singapore

HOME PAGE: http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/Faculty_Shreekant_Gupta.aspx

University of Delhi - Delhi School of Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
University of Delhi
Delhi, Delhi 110007
India
91-11-27667005 (Phone)
91-11-27667159 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.du.ac.in/index.php?id=270&fmember=2728&cid=260

Partha Sen

Centre for Development Economics ( email )

Delhi School of Economics
Delhi, 110007
India

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