控制或终止冠状病毒 （COVID-19）流行的预防、缓解、治疗策略 (Preventive, Mitigating and Treatment Strategies for Containing or Ending The COVID-19 Pandemic)
26 Pages Posted: 18 Mar 2020
Date Written: February 26, 2020
The English version of this paper can be found at http://ssrn.com/abstract=3544428.
Chinese Abstract: 为了解冠状病毒 （CIVID-19）疾病患者与患者之间结局的巨大差异，我们探讨了动力学方面的病毒感染和宿主反应。从现有数据中，我们推导了一个模型。该模型表明，由于白细胞滞留在肺组织中，将导致血流的阻力快速上升，从而损害了肺功能。最初白细胞的滞留是由病毒感染触发的，但由于低温造成的伤害而加剧。肺部最初会因漏液而受损，然后迅速将血液挤出到肺泡腔中。预计血液挤出的步骤可在很短的时间内完成。我们的模拟显示，肺中仅有0.1％的白细胞滞留会在5到10天之内导致肺功能衰竭。较小程度的失衡，意味着可以通过许多已知的减少血流阻力的因素来纠正这种失衡。该模型表明，在整个疾病过程中，尤其是在病毒扩散到整个肺部之后，最重要的是保持血液微循环来维持器官功能。通过探索大量假设的感染模式，我们提出了预防，缓解和治疗的策略，最终结束大流行。第一个策略：是避免可能导致肺部广泛暴露损害，并在暴露后采取缓解的措施，以降低疾病的严重程度；第二种策略：是通过使用多因素健康优化方法，将感染患者的死亡率和残疾率从当前水平降低到十分之一。双重减少策略，有望产生有助于缓解或结束大流行的一系列连锁反应。这些反应包括大大减少被感染患者向空气中释放的病毒量，避免恐慌，慢性压力和情绪困扰，以及隔离所预期的交叉感染。双重减少策略将最终制止冠状病毒的大流行。
English Abstract: To understand great disparities in disease outcomes between COVID-19 patients, we explore infection and host responses in kinetics. From existing data, we deduced a model that the lungs are damaged by rapidly rising flow resistance as a result of retaining white blood cells in lung tissues. The retention of white blood cells is initially triggered viral infection but aggravated by injuries caused by low temperature. Lungs are initially damaged by fluid leakage, rapidly followed by extruding blood into alveolar spaces. The step of blood extruding is predicted to take place in a very short time. Our simulations show that as little as 0.1% retention of white blood cells in the lungs can lead to their failure in 5 to 10 days. The small degrees of imbalance implies that this imbalance could be corrected by a large number of factors that are known to reduce flow resistance. The model implies that the top priority is maintaining blood micro-circulation and preserving organ functions in the entire disease course, especially after the virus has spread the whole lungs. From exploring a large number of hypothetical infection modes, we propose preventive, mitigating and treatment strategies for ultimately ending the pandemic. The first strategy is avoiding exposures that could result in widespread damages to lungs and taking post exposure mitigating measures that would reduce disease severity. The second strategy is reducing death rate and disability rate from the current levels to one tenth for infected patients by using multiple factors health optimization method. The double reduction strategies are expected to generate a series of chain reactions that favor mitigating or ending the pandemic. Some reactions include a big reduction of the amount of viral discharges from infected patients into the air, the avoidance of panic, chronic stress and emotional distress, and cross-infections which are expected in quarantines. The double reductions would have a final effect of ending the pandemic.
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